英文标题：Impacts of cropland expansion on carbon storage: A case study in Hubei, China

作者：唐兰萍，柯新利*，周婷，郑伟伟，王立业

来源：Journal of Environmental Management, 265, 110515. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110515

论文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110515

研究问题：

生态系统碳储量对于缓解全球变暖发挥着重要的作用，而土地利用变化是影响碳储量的主要驱动力。耕地扩张作为土地利用变化的主要特征之一，能够对碳储量产生重要的影响，因此，探索耕地扩张对碳储量的影响对于应对全球气候变化至关重要。因此，本研究以湖北省为研究区域，旨在解决以下研究问题：耕地扩张已经对碳储量产生了多大的影响？未来耕地扩张将会对碳储量产生怎样的影响？与城市扩张对碳储量的影响相比，耕地扩张对碳储量的影响程度如何？

研究方法：

LANDSCAPE model；InVEST model

论文摘要：

When cropland expansion encroaches on ecological land (e.g., forest, grassland, wetland), it seriously affects carbon storage which plays an important role in global climate change. Taking Hubei as the study area, this study explored the effects of cropland expansion on carbon storage in both 2000–2010 and 2010–2030 in different scenarios by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE). The results showed that cropland expansion led to a massive loss of carbon storage (1.76 Tg•C) during 2000–2010, which is expected to continue during 2010–2030 in different scenarios. The loss is predicted to be 3.70 Tg•C in the Business-As-Usual scenario and be 0.88 Tg•C in the Requisition–Compensation Balance of Cropland Policy scenario. Noticeably, the loss of carbon storage due to cropland expansion was 1.12 times more than that due to urban expansion during 2000–2010. For the period of 2010–2030, the loss of carbon storage caused by cropland expansion is predicted to be 3.88 times more than that caused by urban expansion in the Business-As-Usual scenario, while the losses caused by cropland expansion and urban expansion are predicted to be almost equal in the Requisition–Compensation Balance of Cropland Policy scenario. The main cause of carbon storage loss due to cropland expansion is that it leads to the considerable loss of forest and wetland. This study highlights the importance of considering the loss of carbon storage caused by cropland expansion when conducting cropland protection policies and land use planning.

论文关键词：

Cropland expansion; Land use model; Carbon storage; Ecosystem services; Cropland protection policies